Us Election Odds Australia
In the US, it’s illegal to bet on elections but in Australia, political bets have traditionally been seen as a “novelty”, says Dr Sally Gainsbury, Director of the Gambling, Treatment. Get the latest Australian Federal Politics betting and odds here at tab.com.au. Next Federal Election Winner 1 Market. Next Federal Election Winner. Tabcorp’s gambling operations are governed by its Responsible Gambling Code of Conduct and for South Australian residents by the South Australian.
Donald Trump has declared himself the winner of the 2020 presidential election and called for "all voting to stop" in remarks delivered live from the White House on ...
Donald Trump has declared himself the winner of the 2020 presidential election and called for "all voting to stop" in remarks delivered live from the White House on election night.
The betting agencies are providing huge clues about the election result. Picture: Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images/AFPSource:AFP
A bookmaker has declared a Joe Biden victory, already paying out on bets for him to become the next US President.
Sportsbet tweeted the announcement just after 11am Australian time, even though the election is yet to be officially called by anyone.
The betting agency has paid out $23 million on election bets, but says it is still taking bets on who will win the presidential race.
The betting site had Biden at $1.10 and Trump at $6.50 but odds has been shifting dramatically over the past 48 hours.
Just yesterday afternoon, there was a huge swing to Trump, whose odds plummeted to a narrow $1.22.
But this morning, things wildy swung back in favour of Biden as the race narrows in key battleground states.
This is how Australian bookies were tracking this morning. Basically, it means for every $1 you put on that candidate, you would get the below in return if they win.
HERE ARE THE LATEST ODDS AT 2:30PM:
• Biden: $1.14
• Trump: $5.50
• Biden: $1.11
• Trump: $5.80
• Biden: $1.11
• Trump: $9.40
• Biden: $1.10
• Trump: $6.50
• Biden: $1.10
• Trump: $6.00
Scroll below to see how they compared to last night.
Joe Biden is firming up in betting odds to become the next president as polls close in the US election. Picture: Jim Watson/AFPSource:AFP
In 2016, Trump was $2.35 before markets closed ahead of the election.
Biden’s highest price was $26 in February this year.
The US election has been so popular for TAB that it will hold more money for the historical event than the AFL or NRL Grand Finals and it’s the same situation for Sportsbet.
RECORD BREAKING BET
Over in the UK, a British businessman is so confident Trump will win that he has placed a record breaking bet on the president staying in the White House.
The mystery former banker used private bookies registered in the Caribbean to place a bet of $5 million ($A6.97m), with odds of 37/20, on Trump’s win, according to The Sun.
If he is successful, the businessman could be taking home almost $15 million ($A20.9m).
A betting industry source told the publication the bet was believed to be “the biggest ever made on politics”.
While most indicators predict a Biden victory, if 2016 taught us anything, it’s that there’s no such thing as a shoo-in.
There has been a huge rush in bets on the US election, providing some major clues about what to expect from one of the most crucial votes in recent history when it comes to the polls – and the betting agencies.
WHAT DID THE POLLS SAY?
On election eve in the US, there had been a flurry of last-minute polling, with the Des Moines Register poll showing Trump beating Biden 48 per cent to 41 in Iowa – a massive swing from its previous survey, which had the race tied.
A poll of New Mexico from The Albuquerque Journal, which showed Mr Biden winning 54-42, was in line with the conventional wisdom that New Mexico was a little too Democrat-leaning these days to be considered a proper swing state.
The latest batch of New York Times/Siena polls covered four different states. Those polls showed Biden up 49-43 in Arizona, 52-41 in Wisconsin, 47-44 in Florida and 49-43 in Pennsylvania.
An EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan had the Democrat leading 48-41. Another, conducted by St Pete, showed him winning Florida by a razor-thin 49-48 margin. And finally, a pair of ABC News/Washington Post surveys had Biden up 51-44 in Pennsylvania, but Trump winning Florida 50-48.
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The odds are in Joe Biden’s favour. Picture: Drew Angerer/Getty Images/AFPSource:AFP
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WHAT ARE THE ODDS?
Democratic hopeful Joe Biden has been the clear favourite across the major betting sites in the lead-up to the election.
But as the vote continued into the night, odds switched back in favour of Donald Trump.
Many believe betting odds offer a more accurate election prediction than polls, as people have invested their own hard-earned cash in the outcome.
These were the odds according to some of the major betting agencies, as of November 4 at 6.30pm, so you can see how much they’ve shifted.
• Biden: $3.20
• Trump: $1.34
• Biden: $3.20
• Trump: $1.34
• Biden: $1.45
• Trump: $3
• Biden: $2.88
• Trump: $1.36
• Biden: $3.10
• Trump: $1.33
PUNTER’S STUNNING $130K GAMBLE
A record number of bets have already been placed on the US election – but one cocky TAB punter shocked betting pros by laying down $130,000 on a Biden win.
The unnamed gambler bet the staggering pile of cash at odds of $1.57 this week.
Other big recent bets include $100,000 at $1.56 on Joe Biden and $40,000 at $2.50 on Donald Trump.
DIFFERENT BETS YOU CAN MAKE
All eyes are on the big one – whether it will be Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the White House for the next four years.
But there are also a string of other bets on the table, including the number of electoral college votes each candidate will receive, who will win the popular vote, the state electoral college winner, the state margin, seat margin, US Senate winner and many more.
For example, Trump is paying $4.50 to win the popular vote compared to Biden’s $1.18 (the candidate to get the most votes across America).
In 2016, Ms Clinton won the popular vote but still lost the election.
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Will US President Donald Trump manage to pull off another miracle? Picture: Brendan Smialowski/AFPSource:AFP
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ODDS BEFORE 2016 ELECTION
When Donald Trump took on Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, it wasn’t just the pollsters that got the outcome disastrously wrong – the betting sites also incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory.
In fact, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power failed so spectacularly it ended up with a £4 million ($A7,399,793) bill after prematurely paying out £800,000 ($A1,479,958) to those who had backed Clinton ahead of Trump’s shock win.
According to OddsShark, Trump’s odds to win the 2016 election were close to 5-to-1 on election day eve and over at TAB, Trump was $2.35 before markets closed ahead of the 2016 election.
HOW TO BET
Betting on political elections is very much illegal in all 50 states in the US.
However, the same rules don’t apply in other countries, which means betting agencies based in Australia, the UK and other nations are open for business, with most companies allowing punters to place a bet online.
According to Fortune, gambling insiders are expecting the previous record set in 2016 to be broken again this year, with some bookies expecting the election to be even bigger than the Super Bowl where betting in concerned.
Australians are expected to bet more on the US election than our own NRL and AFL grand finals. So why is betting on politics becoming so popular?
As the world awaits the US election result, an unprecedented number of Australians are emptying their pockets and placing bets on which candidate will secure the presidency.
While betting on the 2016 US election was “popular”, the demand this time around “has been absolutely enormous,” a spokesperson at Ladbrokes told Dateline.
“We have seen an unprecedented level of interest and that includes a number of very big bets,” they said.
“At this stage, it looks as though we will have more money wagered on the US Election than we did on both the AFL Grand Final and the NRL Grand Final,” they said.
Earlier this month, Sportsbet’s creative director, Rambo Goraya told Mumbrella the company expects the “election to be up there with the Melbourne Cup as our biggest event of 2020.”
Ladbrokes disagrees but claims Australians are gambling more money on the US election than the upcoming Queensland election.
“We held plenty of money on the last federal election, including a $1 million bet on Labor, but the US Election has still been more popular,” they added.
Along with Ladbrokes, Sportsbet and TAB have been widely advertising their services ahead of the November 3 election.
Sportsbet has been running nightly commercials showing a bright orange cartoon version of the president introducing the ‘Trump Hub’, a place where punters can bet on the president’s activities ahead of election day.
Listed items include whether the president’s face will be added to Mt Rushmore, if Putin will join Trump at a rally or if he’ll replace Ellen DeGeneres as a talk show host.
All three major companies have placed former Vice President Joe Biden as the favourite to win the election.
Along with polls, Ladbrokes says “public forecasts provided by outlets like 538” and “the weight of money for a certain candidate” play a part in determining the odds of the candidates.
But what’s behind the rising interest in US politics?
In the US, it’s illegal to bet on elections but in Australia, political bets have traditionally been seen as a “novelty”, says Dr Sally Gainsbury, Director of the Gambling, Treatment and Research Centre at The University of Sydney.
She says with less sporting events occurring and the closure of gambling venues during the pandemic, their popularity has increased.
“With the traditional things that would normally be happening at this time of year in terms of grand finals, and European or North American Summer sports, there's been a real reduction in opportunities to bet,” she told Dateline.
Dr Alex Russell is a Senior Postdoctoral Fellow at the Experimental Gambling Research Laboratory at Central Queensland University.
He says political betting is a great way to tap into the current conversations and “get people talking”.
“They offer bets on just about anything. They do the same with what colour Scomo’s tie will be during the next press conference or about who’s going to be the next Pope because it’s a point of difference,” Dr Russell said.
“If all they were advertising were sports betting, people would get a bit over it.”
Can bets be more accurate than polls?
The accuracy of polls has been brought into question after the last US election when it was universally predicted that Trump would lose.
A spokesperson at Ladbrokes told Dateline he believes betting odds can be more accurate than polls.
“The betting still had Trump as a big outsider in 2020, but not as much as the majority of polls indicated,” he said.
Dr Russell says while we have an idea that “bookies always get it right,”, that’s not always the case.
Two days before the last federal election, Sportsbet handed out more than $1 million to bidders who thought Labor would win. The Liberal victory in the election meant the betting company ultimately lost large.
In 2016, the company was also forked to pay out $11 million to 25,000 punters who backed Trump in the US election.
Experts say there are also ethical issues involved with betting on an election when there’s a possibility for punters to influence the outcome or in cases where they have insider knowledge.
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“One concern is obviously if there's a lot of election betting and the odds are shifting, that can actually have a legitimate influence on how people cast their vote,” Dr Gainsbury said.
Australia’s gambling addiction
Australia spends more on gambling per capita than any other country in the world and double the average of most western countries, according to Dr Gainsbury.
Dr Gainsbury said the “problem gambling prevalence rate is around one percent but if you include people who are at sub-clinical levels, it's around four or five percent.”
“Australia has a gambling culture. We play Two-Up on Anzac Day and just about every sport match you watch has gambling advertisements all over it,” Dr Russell added.
Australian gamblers are betting more often during COVID-19, according to research released in October by the Australian Institute of Family Studies.
One in three participants of the study signed up for new online betting accounts during COVID-19 as other gambling activities were put on hold.
Lead researcher on the study, Dr Rebecca Jenkinson, said the findings around young men were a concern.
“Increased gambling among young men was often reported to be associated with being socially isolated, bored, or as a means of social connection with friends,” she said.
“On top of this, the easy, 24-hour accessibility of online gambling means young people have been able to bet at any time, any place.”
Dr Gainsbury says gambling stops being entertainment and starts becoming an addiction when people lose control of their spending or there’s an aspect of secrecy around gambling behaviour.
“If you’re concerned about yourself or someone else, you can temporarily block yourself from a gambling website and stop receiving their marketing material, or set a deposit limit,” Dr Gainsbury said.
“If someone is going to be betting on the election and that's all they intend to do, then it's quite useful to delete the app and turn off the marketing,” she added.
Us Election Odds 2020
“Keep in mind, you should only gamble what you can afford to lose, and that you shouldn't be gambling with the expectation of winning any money.”
Us Election Bet Australia
The University of Sydney’s Gambling Treatment and Research Clinic has just launched an online self-help tool for gambling problems.
Readers seeking support can contact the Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or Lifeline on 13 11 14.